Skoðanakannanir á Íslandi sýna stöðugt bil milli stuðnings við aðildarviðræður og stuðnings við ESB-aðild. Þjóðarpúls frá febrúar–mars 2026 mældi um 52% hlynnt viðræðum en einungis 42% hlynnt aðild, með 42% á móti og 16% óákveðna. Þetta um 10 prósentustiga bil hefur verið viðvarandi síðan 2009 og endurspeglar hóp kjósenda sem vilja sjá samningsskilmálana áður en þeir taka afstöðu.
Enska frumtextinn
Icelandic public opinion polls consistently show a significant gap between support for resuming EU accession negotiations and support for actual EU membership. The Gallup Þjóðarpúls survey (February–March 2026) found approximately 52% supported continuing negotiations but only about 42% supported EU membership, with approximately 42% opposed and 16% undecided on membership. This ~10-percentage-point gap between 'negotiate' and 'join' has been a persistent feature of Icelandic EU polling since 2009. It reflects a substantial group of voters who favour exploring the terms of membership without committing in advance — essentially wanting to see the deal before deciding. The referendum question (whether to resume negotiations) therefore conflates two distinct decisions: authorising the process and endorsing the outcome.
Heimild
Gallup Þjóðarpúls, February–March 2026; Capacent Gallup historical EU polling data (2009–2013)
Gallup á Íslandi er leiðandi skoðanakönnunarfyrirtæki sem framkvæmir reglulegar Þjóðarpúlskannanir um viðhorf almennings til stjórnmála og samfélagsmála.
Skoða heimild ↗Fyrirvarar
Exact polling figures vary by pollster, date, and question wording. The 42/42/16 split on membership is approximate. The negotiations-membership gap could narrow or widen during the campaign. Historical precedent from Norway (1972, 1994) and Denmark (1972) suggests that EU referendum campaigns can shift opinion significantly. The undecided voters (16%) are likely decisive and may break differently depending on campaign dynamics.
Notuð í greiningum (1)
„Við hefðum náð meiri árangri með því að vera innan Evrópusambandsins“ Vísir
- Villandi Andmælir Þjóðaratkvæðagreiðslan snýst um einfalda spurningu: hvort halda eigi aðildarviðræðum áfram eða ekki.