Efnahagsáhrif Brexit á Bretland hafa verið umfangsmikil: OBR áætlar 4% samdrátt í landsframleiðslu til lengri tíma, Centre for European Reform telur vöruviðskipti vera um 7% lægri en ella, og Englandsbanki vísar til Brexit-hindrana sem ástæðu hærra matvælaverðs. Þjónustuviðskipti, einkum fjármálaþjónusta, urðu einnig fyrir áhrifum þegar vegabréfsréttindi (passporting) á innri markaðinum féllu brott.
Enska frumtextinn
The economic impact of Brexit on the United Kingdom has been the subject of extensive analysis since the UK left the EU on 31 January 2020 (with the transition period ending 31 December 2020). Key findings from major studies include: the UK Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimated in 2023 that Brexit has reduced UK long-run GDP by approximately 4% relative to remaining in the EU; the Centre for European Reform (CER) estimated in 2022–2023 that UK goods trade was approximately 7% lower than it would have been without Brexit; the Bank of England has cited Brexit-related trade barriers as contributing to higher food prices and lower business investment. The UK's services trade with the EU has also been disrupted, particularly in financial services (loss of EU passporting rights). Trade barriers include customs checks, rules-of-origin requirements, and regulatory divergence. However, assessing Brexit's impact is complicated by the overlap with the COVID-19 pandemic and the global energy crisis, making it difficult to isolate Brexit-specific effects.
Heimild
UK Office for Budget Responsibility — Economic and fiscal outlook 2023; Centre for European Reform; Bank of England
Fjárlagaskrifstofa Bretlands (OBR) er óháð opinber stofnun sem spáir fyrir um efnahag Bretlands og metur áhrif ríkisfjármálastefnu á opinber fjármál.
Skoða heimild ↗Fyrirvarar
Brexit impact estimates vary widely depending on methodology, assumptions, and counterfactual baseline. Some studies find smaller or larger effects. Brexit supporters point to the UK's ability to sign independent trade deals (e.g., CPTPP accession in 2023) and to diverge from EU regulation in areas like financial services and agricultural biotechnology. The full long-term effects of Brexit may not be clear for years. Iceland's situation differs fundamentally from the UK's — Iceland is a small economy already in the EEA, so joining the EU would be a much smaller step than leaving it was for the UK.
Notuð í greiningum (2)
Engin fordæmi fyrir leið Íslands í átt að ESB RÚV
- Að hluta staðfest Styður Útganga Bretlands úr ESB (Brexit) var meginbreytingin sem átti sér stað í Evrópusambandinu á undanförnum árum.
- Að hluta staðfest Styður Eftir Brexit þéttu ESB-ríkin sem eftir urðu sínar raðir í stað þess að fleiri ríki segðu sig úr.
- Staðfest Styður Óttinn var að fleiri ríki fylgdu Bretlandi úr ESB eftir Brexit, en það gerðist ekki.
- Staðfest Styður Umræða er í Bretlandi um að útgangan hafi verið mistök.
Snorri segir húsnæði verða jafndýrt þótt vextir lækki Heimildin
- Staðfest Styður Brexit hafi verið mjög erfitt fyrir Breta og þeir séu enn að glíma við afleiðingar þess.