Fjárlagaskrifstofa Bretlands (OBR) áætlar að Brexit dragi úr framleiðni til lengri tíma um 4% miðað við áframhaldandi aðild, og staðfesti í mars 2024 að spáin væri \"á réttri braut\". Áhrifin byggjast á auknum ótollhindrunum sem draga úr viðskiptavirkni, og OBR gerir ráð fyrir að full áhrif komi fram á 15 árum.
Enska frumtextinn
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimates that Brexit will reduce UK long-run productivity by approximately 4% relative to remaining in the EU. In March 2024, the OBR stated this prediction is 'broadly on track'. The OBR assumes the full impact will take 15 years to materialise, with some front-loading. The estimate is based on increased non-tariff barriers reducing trade intensity and limiting exploitation of comparative advantage. The UK's trade intensity (trade as a share of GDP) has fallen relative to comparable economies since 2016. Business investment was persistently weak between the 2016 referendum and 2024, though multiple factors contributed including Covid-19 and energy price shocks.
Heimild
Office for Budget Responsibility, Brexit Analysis
Fjárlagaskrifstofa Bretlands (OBR) er óháð opinber stofnun sem spáir fyrir um efnahag Bretlands og metur áhrif ríkisfjármálastefnu á opinber fjármál.
Skoða heimild ↗Fyrirvarar
The 4% figure is a modelled estimate with inherent uncertainty. Some economists contest the OBR methodology, arguing it overestimates the Brexit impact by not fully accounting for policy adaptation and new trade agreements. The counterfactual is impossible to observe directly. The full impact is projected over 15 years and may be revised as more data accumulates.
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- Staðfest Styður Brexit hafi verið mjög erfitt fyrir Breta og þeir séu enn að glíma við afleiðingar þess.