Óákveðnir kjósendur á Íslandi eru um 15–20% kjósenda í byrjun árs 2026. Þeir eru hlutfallslega fleiri konur (55–60%), á aldrinum 30–50 ára, búa á nágrenni höfuðborgarsvæðisins og hafa mestar áhyggjur af efnahagslegum stöðugleika, sérstaklega húsnæðiskostnaði og verðbólgu. Alþjóðleg fordæmi benda til þess að óákveðnir brjótist 55–60% í átt að \"já\" á lokavikum.
Enska frumtextinn
Undecided voters represent approximately 15–20% of the Icelandic electorate on the EU question as of early 2026. Analysis of undecided voter demographics shows they are disproportionately female (55–60%), aged 30–50, with moderate education levels, and concentrated in the capital region's suburbs and satellite towns (Kópavogur, Hafnarfjörður, Garðabær). Their top concerns are economic stability (particularly housing costs and inflation), followed by fisheries and sovereignty. Undecided voters tend to have lower political engagement and are less likely to turn out. Historical comparison with the Norwegian and Austrian referendums suggests undecided voters break approximately 55–60% towards 'Yes' in the final weeks, but this depends heavily on campaign dynamics and late-breaking events.
Heimild
Félagsvísindastofnun Háskóla Íslands — Undecided voter survey (2025); Maskína — swing voter analysis
Félagsvísindastofnun Háskóla Íslands er rannsóknarstofnun sem stundar vísindalegar kannanir og greiningar á samfélagslegum viðhorfum og stjórnmálum.
Skoða heimild ↗Fyrirvarar
Undecided voter analysis is inherently uncertain — respondents who say they are undecided may lean one way but be reluctant to state it. The assumption that undecided voters break towards 'Yes' is based on international precedent but not guaranteed for Iceland. Turnout among undecided voters may be lower than among committed voters, reducing their actual impact.