Stuðningur Íslendinga við ESB-aðild hefur sveiflast mikið frá 2009: hámark í um 55% í byrjun 2009 á kreppuárunum, lægð í um 25% árið 2013 þegar efnahagurinn rétti úr kútnum, og svo hæg sókn upp í ~45% seint á árinu 2025. Óákveðnir kjósendur eru 15–25% og mynda þann hóp sem mun ráða úrslitum.
Enska frumtextinn
Icelandic public opinion on EU membership has swung dramatically since the 2009 application. Support peaked at approximately 55% in early 2009, during the financial crisis when EU/euro membership was seen as a stability anchor. By 2013, support had fallen to approximately 25% as the economy recovered and the centre-right government suspended negotiations. Support gradually recovered to ~30% by 2018, ~35% by 2022, and ~45% by late 2025. The 2024 Althingi vote to hold a binding referendum re-energised the debate. Throughout this period, the proportion of undecided voters ranged from 15–25%, representing the decisive swing group.
Heimild
Gallup Ísland — EU membership polling series 2009–2026; Capacent/MMR — supplementary polls
Gallup á Íslandi hefur framkvæmt langtímaraðir könnuna um ESB-afstöðu frá 2009, ásamt viðbótarkönnunum frá Capacent og MMR.
Skoða heimild ↗Fyrirvarar
Long-term polling comparisons must account for changes in question wording, polling methodology (phone vs online), and polling firms. The crisis-era spike may reflect 'flight to safety' sentiment rather than deep commitment to EU integration.